2009 Getty Images

Aaron Peirsol competing at the 2009 FINA World Championships in Rome.

07/30/10

Seldom does a meet two years out generate this level of interest and excitement.

But this year’s Nationals, starting next week in Irvine, promise to do just that.

The compelling storylines stretch across events and for both the women and men. For the swimmers who do not have suit deals, the upgraded stipend from USA Swimming could be the deciding factor in whether to continue for two more years toward London.

Everyone has their own favorite swimmers, or events, they will be watching. Certainly, all eyes will be one Michael Phelps, though I think his focus and intensity are such that he could easily pull it together in the final year run-up rather than have to nail it all perfectly now. Still, it would be great to see the great one put forth another excellent performance.

Other compelling storylines include:

Ryan Lochte’s  knee: No one outside the sport understands how serious that ligament issue he has is when it comes to swimming, especially for the breaststroke. It is literally a program changer. If not healed it takes away two events that he would easily be a favorite in – he’d be seen as the heir apparent to the 400 IM gold with Phelps focusing on shorter events. And please, spare everyone the comments about how breakdancing was irresponsible – he could have done it doing the Tango, waltz, two-step, or just playing catch in the yard. These things happen. He can’t walk around in an environmentally sealed bubble for Pete’s sake. Here’s hoping Lochte is back and on his game; conversely, here’s hoping he doesn’t push it if he’s not ready and focuses on 2012.

Chloe Sutton’s  “A” game, and will it be enough: Sutton has been one of the truly wonderful rising stars in the sport, transitioning from open-water sensation to distance in the pool. But she’s not dominating yet like Katie Hoff or Kate Zielger was, so it will be interesting to see how she does with Katie and Kate back at the top of their games. Katie and Kate seem to be in much better places right now than in 2008, and it would be heartwarming and exciting to see both reach the levels they were approaching before, especially since they are focused on their own programs now and not on each other. At the same time, this is an odd-woman out situation – Worlds and Olympic teams think threes a crowd. Ironically, there are several other distance stars coming on the scene, and back to the scene (including some other distance standouts) who will likely claim one or two of the spots most people think will go to Chloe, Katie or Kate. But this is nothing but good news for USA Swimming and the team’s depth and chances for medaling in 2012. The men’s distances also promise to generate chatter as the bid to find the next Erik Vendt or Larsen Jensen hits year two.

How the so-called “aging” stars will do: Anyone who bets against Aaron Peirsol is thankfully broke by now, because he always delivers. But there is an ever-shrinking batch of great ones from this very special era who are no doubt on the final part of the arc of their careers. Natalie Coughlin still looks good as gold, but the whole departure of the glory-days crowd that started with Brendan Hansen, Ian Crocker and company moving into the working world figures only to continue in time. We just don’t know whose time it is now.

The whole FAST crew: Talk about pressure – who is feeling is more than Sean Hutchinson? He has established stars in Hoff and Ariana Kukors, Dagny Knutson on the way – so the guy has to own the IMs, right? It is hard to imagine what will be good enough to meet the expectations and the talk. He also has several twilight stars, notably Margaret Hoelzer, and it’ll be interesting to see what he has done with the charismatic Caroline Burckle. Whitney Myers moved west from Arizona to get her career back on track, and word is she is again approaching the top of her game. FAST started with a bang with a small talented group, and then expanded as, one by one, people starting to believe in what Sean was putting together. In this era of high expectations and immediate returns, a lot of eyes will be focused on Hutchinson’s crew, and whether it’s applause or finger-pointing, it’s a safe guess that the results of FAST will be among the compelling storylines emanating from Irvine.

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