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Phelps vs. Cavic - Who will take this race in 2012?

07/28/10

We're halfway there. Yesterday, July 27th, 2010 marked the two-year deadline for the London Games. Memories of Beijing recede with each passing day. Goals for London grow sharper with each sunrise. Seems like a fine time for some two-years-out predictions...

Every winter in Las Vegas, horse racing introduces something called the Winter Book. It's a pool of all the 3-year-old horses who might make it to the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. Because there's no guarantee those young colts will even get through the qualifying prep races, much less have a shot to win the roses, you can get some very long odds indeed on some very well bred young athletes. Some say it's a fool's wager, betting before any of the good information emerges. But others (my father and I included) can't resist the fat odds and the romantic notion of being the first aboard a future champion.

That's about the same as what I'm about to attempt below. Predictions (call them 'bets', if you like) for the 2012 London Games two years from the starting date. Like the horses in January, none of the good information is in yet. How can you make accurate calls 730 days from the first race? You can't. The Pan Pacific Games in a few weeks will give us some essential data; the World Championships in Shanghai next summer will give us even more; and of course we won't even know who will 'make the meet' until after the next Olympic Trials in Omaha.

The smart money may want to wait until these results are in, but here's some early handicapping for the gamblers and soothsayers among us...

1. Gold medals won by Michael Phelps in London: 4.
I'm betting that Phelps swims the same program as '04 and '08 with the exception of the 400 IM. This time though, the angels won't always be swimming at his shoulder in the close ones. Wins: 200 Fly, 4x100 medley relay, 4x100 free relay, and the 4x200 free relay. Losses: To Ryan Lochte in the 200 IM, to Germany's Paul Biedermann in the 200 free, and yes, to Serbia's Mike Cavic in the 100 fly. Maybe that's just an attempt to poke the tiger into making a few more workouts, but it would be fitting for Phelps to bookend his Olympic career with a final individual victory in the 200 fly, the event that started it all for the greatest.

2. Winner of the women's 100 breaststroke: Jessica Hardy
It's still not clear whether or not Hardy will even be allowed to compete in London. In March, a Swiss court ruled in her favor, rejecting the World Anti-Doping Agency's efforts to extend her ban for testing positive for clenbuterol at the 2008 Olympic Trials. Hardy has been through hell as she's tried to clear her name and ensure her Olympic eligibility. But when she's in the water she's left no question marks, establishing herself as the fastest female breaststroker on earth.

3. Winner of the men's 100 backstroke: Nick Thoman
What is it about Americans and the men's 100 back? How many times has the U.S. Olympic Trials proved to be a faster, deeper field than the Olympic final itself? It's a peculiar Yank legacy and it keeps fulfilling itself with an uninterrupted succession of 100 back savants. Nick Thoman appears to be the latest among them. He's been keeping the Peirsols and the Lochtes and the Grevers honest for two years now, but since breaking the short course world record at the 2009 Dual in the Pool, it appears Thoman is ready to step into the international spotlight in his own right.

4. Youngest man on the U.S. Olympic team: Ryan Murphy, age 17
If you're an age group swimmer or coach in Florida, you already know all about Murphy. If not, just wait, you will. The just-turned 15-year-old backstroke phenom from the Bolles School has matched Aaron Peirsol's precocious rise stroke-for-stroke through the age group ranks. He recently broke the 13-14 national record in the 100 back and it seems highly likely that he's about to become the youngest ever to break 2:00 in the 200 this summer. Peirsol was 17 back at the 2000 Sydney Games when he stroked to silver behind Lenny Krazelburg. We could see a proud passing of the torch in Omaha if Murphy emerges and takes down either Peirsol or Lochte and grabs a spot on the team

5. Oldest member of the U.S. Olympic team: Jason Lezak, age 36
Dara Torres  will be 45-years-old when the London Games begin. She'll need to make a Faustian bargain to get her on the team at that age. Though Torres certainly has the means and the sheer madness to make it happen... Meanwhile, Lezak will be a comparatively sprite 36 in the summer of 2012. Probably a bit too old for any out of body epic relay anchors, but he'll likely have enough left in the tank to go 48+ and grab a spot in the relay prelims.

The crystal ball's growing cloudy... Gentlemen, place your bets.